Q1 2026 INDUSTRY REPORT

Q1 2026 Report | Patio, Lawn & Garden

Q1 2026 Patio, Lawn & Garden: Margin is up, traffic is down

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Key takeaways

Margin expanded even as prices fell: ASP declined ~26% YoY & discounts compressed to ~13% in March, yet gross margin expanded 6 to 9 percentage points, creating room to reinvest in traffic acquisition & inventory depth.

Conversion is doing the heavy lifting: Glance views dropped ~32% YoY while conversion rates roughly doubled versus Q1 2025, but sustained traffic declines pose a structural ceiling on unit growth.

Inventory is positioned for peak season: On-hand inventory entered Q1 up 12% YoY, lowering stockout risk ahead of the spring selling window.

Fill rates stepped up materially: PO fill rate climbed to ~88% in March, a ~14 percentage point YoY gain, signaling tighter, more demand-aligned replenishment cycles.

Ad spend is buying incremental demand, not inflation: Ad spend rose ~16% YoY while CPC fell to $1.04, indicating the category is capturing incremental demand efficiently rather than bidding up existing traffic.

Stockout losses dropped sharply but volatility remains: March OOS revenue loss fell ~55% YoY, though replenishable OOS rates ranged from 1.1% to 2.5% versus last year's tighter 0.5 point range around 1.7%.